For those of a certain age, the Kennedy-Nixon debate for the 1960 presidential election set the tone and standard for all that came after. Famously, it was the first debate of the television age, where the two candidates faced off in front of millions of Americans. It took place in the CBS News studio with vice-president Nixon, Senator Kennedy, and a moderator named Howard K. Smith. Nixon famously started sweating and looked haggard next to the handsome Kennedy.
For an education on what presidential debate used to be, you can watch it here.
There have been many presidential debates since then: Reagan vs. Mondale before the landslide in 1984; Bush vs. Gore, when the former vice president lost the election by sighing throughout; Clinton vs. Trump, when Trump creepily leered and hovered in Clinton’s space; and Biden vs. Trump in 2020, when Trump wouldn’t let Biden talk.
But nothing that has come before comes close to what will happen tomorrow at the CNN studios in Atlanta. By now, you have been hearing the intense tones, predictions, and fears of Democrats, Republicans, and the media on this debate. Biden is too old. Trump is crazy and a criminal. Biden will freeze up on stage and show voters that he no longer can be president. Trump will untether from reality and say whatever comes into his head. Voters will wonder whether both candidates are up to the job. Will they even shake hands? They did not last time.
You should ignore 90 percent of what you hear online and on television. Most of it is bloviating of the worst kind. Cable TV is chasing ratings. It is seeing a possible audience of 50 million people in what could be the most important election since the Civil War, and money is to be made.
So ignore Cable TV, but there are some key websites and writers who, I believe, understand the stakes and what will happen.
For my money, the best people to read are:
John Heilman at Puck.
Maggie Haberman at the NY Times.
Rick Wilson at the Lincoln Project.
Olivia Nuzzi at New York Magazine.
James Fallows at The Atlantic and his own blog.
Sarah Longwell at The Bulwark.
These folks know politics better than anyone. They read polling data, are meticulous in their writing and preparation, and have great sources. I read them daily, and together, they give you the full picture of what’s really going on in this election.
But if you don’t have time to read all these people, I’ve written out a handy what-you-need-to-know guide for Thursday night.
First - The Motivations
Biden wants this debate. His people, and most Democratic voters, are quaking in their boots because polls have Biden behind or tied in several swing states - Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, and Wisconsin. Trump’s felony conviction moved the polls a bit, but as Obama campaign manager David Plouffe used to say - the entire Democratic party has become “bed wetters’’ over the improbable notion that Trump could actually win the election. Biden needs this debate to change the race. He intends to look presidential standing next to the felon and to demonstrate that he has what it takes to deserve another term at 81 years old.
Trump wants the debate, too. He knows the felony conviction drives suburban voters away from him. He knows his vote totals have a ceiling. He knows he lost to Biden in 2020. He wants to do something crazy to shake up the race: make Biden look old, dredge up the drug use of his son Hunter, and blame Biden for the war in Ukraine and Gaza.
Second - The Logistics
The debate will be hosted by CNN and their journalists, Jake Tapper and Dana Bash. They are both highly experienced, knowledgeable, tough, and prepared. Because of Trump’s lunatic behavior in 2020, where he interrupted Biden at every turn, CNN has decided to turn off the mics when the other candidate is speaking. Also, there will be no studio audience to clap, hoot, holler, and interrupt the flow. Turning off the mics means Trump can’t interrupt and will have to speak in complete sentences to show the country he is not crazy. It is just possible that this debate could be a debate a la Kennedy-Nixon in 1960. (But I doubt it)
Third - Prep
Biden will be prepared. He has run for president three times. He has the best debate prep experts in the country. His former chief of staff, Ron Klain, is in the room. Klain has prepared candidates for big debates for decades. Biden trusts him completely. (I don’t think Trump trusts anyone. And that makes a difference). In their prep runs, the role of Trump will be played - as he was in 2020 - by lawyer Bob Bauer. Bauer worked for President Obama and has been working in Democratic campaigns since the George McGovern days in 1972.
Trump—to continue his charade that he has everything under control—resists debate prep. He tells his staff he doesn’t need to prepare. He will wing it. Sometimes, that works, and sometimes, it goes very badly.
Fourth - Messaging
What should Biden say? What will he say?
Biden will say he has been on our side his entire life. He loves America. He has worked his entire life to make things better for people. The other guy is a felon out for himself. Everything Trump has ever done in his whole life has been for his own enrichment. He doesn’t pay his bills. He sexually assaults women, hung out with serial rapist Jeffrey Epstein and bragged about it all.
If Trump pushes him on his son Hunter’s influence drug peddling, addictions, and other family skeletons, Biden might just be ready to say something like this:
“I have loved two women in my life. The first died in a tragic car crash with our daughter the year I was first elected to the Senate. I wanted to quit. I couldn’t go on. But family and friends persuaded me that America was worth it. And then I met Jill. No one has ever cared more and worked harder for those who need help than Jill Biden. I also lost a son in war when others (Trump) refused to serve. And I lost a son to addiction. He has made mistakes. He has faced justice and the courts, and he will obey the law. And so will I - always.
This is the real Joe Biden, not the cartoon cutout of modern politics. He is the kind of guy who says this stuff every day. Sometimes it is great. Sometimes, it lands with a thud.
What should Trump say? What will he say?
Trump has learned that our media and political system has lost the ability to hold people accountable to any truth. So he will say everything you have already heard him say over and over. Nothing will be true. He will say Biden is a criminal, that he has turned the Justice Department into a political weapon to destroy his opponents. If he was president, the war in Ukraine would never have happened. Neither would the war in Gaza. In fact, when he was president, there were no wars, the deficit was under control, and the wall was going up.
He will test the rules of the debate format. And he will unveil something we don’t expect. Remember when he brought many of Bill Clinton’s supposed mistresses to his debate against Hillary Clinton and put them in the front row? Expect something like that.
Fifth - The Stakes
HIGH
I have been watching debates since 1980. Owing to what happens if Trump gets elected, this will be electric. If you don’t believe me, Google “Project 2025.” You will find a multi-million dollar effort by the right-wing Heritage Foundation to put the Trump agenda in place: Internment camps for illegal refugees, using the military in American cities to control crime, sacking 50,000 civil service workers in the federal government and replacing them with political loyalists, another tax cut for the wealthy that balloons the national debt, leaving NATO, climate change is a hoax, pardons for the Jan. 6 rioters so they can re-form their army.
Oh, and the big one - Trump would get one, maybe two more Supreme Court picks because Clarence Thomas will retire. If you think losing abortion rights was tough two years ago, wait until contraception, same-sex marriage, and voting rights are on the block.
Whatever you do Thursday night, I urge you to watch. Don’t turn away. There is a duty on this one and an obligation to citizenship. There is a band of insurrectionists that would do away with the government and install a right-wing administration run by true believers who don’t give a hoot about civil rights, the courts, an impartial Justice Department, climate change, or your kids.
This is real. It is not a drill. Don’t turn away. This one matters.
Thank you, my friend, both for the overview and for the very clear request that we not turn away. The people we need to be terrified of are not so much the January 6th insurrectionists with guns, but the 3-piece suit guys plotting what a Trump #2 term WILL look like. They are real and powerful. But not as powerful, though it will be tested, as our votes for Biden.